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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
6
0
3
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
27
38
99
0
3
3
6
34
30
41
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
26
36
94
0
3
3
6
32
29
39
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.30 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.265 0.068
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.073
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.727 0.500
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00