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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
0
3
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
27
37
98
0
3
4
7
34
30
41
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
57
100
0
43
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
26
35
93
0
3
4
7
32
29
39
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.27 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.267 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.098
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.724 0.429
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00