CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
5
0
3
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
27
39
100
0
3
2
5
34
30
41
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
40
100
0
60
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
26
37
95
0
3
2
5
32
29
39
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.33 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.021 0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.049
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.730 0.600
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00