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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
3
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
3
8
31
37
29
97
0
0
0
0
31
42
32
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
63
38
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
3
8
30
35
28
92
0
0
0
0
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 2.31 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.065
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.060
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.363 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.064 -0.028 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.881 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.619 0.000
samples: 8 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 7.62 %coverage: 100.00