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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
0
3
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
38
33
101
0
3
1
4
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
100
0
75
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
36
31
96
0
3
1
4
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.46 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.365 0.027
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.022 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.927 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.624 0.750
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00