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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
3
7
2
5
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
28
36
31
95
0
4
3
7
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
10
0
30
0
0
0
0
0
40
30
70
20
50
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
27
34
30
90
0
4
3
7
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.390
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.32 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.315 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.371 true Kuipers skill score: 0.011
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.065 0.360 0.079
equitable threat score:
0.583 0.000 0.184
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.017 0.021
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.878 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.621 0.571
samples: 10 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00