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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
5
1
3
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
38
33
100
1
3
1
5
30
41
34
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
20
100
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
36
31
95
1
3
1
5
29
39
32
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.44 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.369 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.927 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.620 0.800
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00