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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
4
7
0
0
0
0
11
7
3
21
12
9
7
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
4
7
25
26
26
77
11
7
3
21
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
14
25
0
0
0
0
39
25
11
75
43
32
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
4
7
24
25
25
73
10
7
3
20
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.58 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.20 0.64
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.215 true Heidke skill score: -0.067
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.233 true Kuipers skill score: -0.068
threat score:
0.056 0.000 0.120
threat score:
0.023 0.302 0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.133 0.000 -0.114
equitable threat score:
-0.036 0.006 -0.081
probability of detection:
0.083 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.027 0.743 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.662 0.857
samples: 28 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 26.67 %coverage: 100.00