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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
3
5
0
0
0
0
10
6
4
20
11
7
7
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
3
5
26
28
26
80
10
6
4
20
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
12
20
0
0
0
0
40
24
16
80
44
28
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
3
5
25
27
25
76
10
6
4
19
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 0.00 2.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.29 0.61
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: -0.163 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: -0.172 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.067 0.000 0.174
threat score:
0.024 0.322 0.082
equitable threat score:
-0.094 0.000 -0.092
equitable threat score:
-0.019 0.022 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.091 0.000 0.571
probability of detection:
0.027 0.800 0.121
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.650 0.800
samples: 25 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00