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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
7
4
20
9
7
4
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
28
29
85
9
7
4
20
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
45
35
20
100
45
35
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
27
28
81
9
7
4
19
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.43 0.61
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.037
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.304 0.082
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.121
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.671 0.800
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00