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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
33
32
102
0
2
1
3
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
31
30
97
0
2
1
3
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.91 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.317 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.943 0.030
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.676 0.667
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00