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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
33
31
101
0
2
2
4
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
31
30
96
0
2
2
4
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.89 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.943 0.061
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.500
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00