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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
2
7
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
32
31
98
2
3
2
7
37
35
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
43
29
100
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
30
30
93
2
3
2
7
35
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.80 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.317 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.914 0.061
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.714
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00