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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
0
0
0
0
16
9
7
32
18
12
7
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
18
20
30
68
16
9
7
32
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
0
14
0
0
0
0
43
24
19
86
49
32
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
17
19
29
65
15
9
7
30
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.243 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 0.00 4.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.12 0.86
Heidke skill score: -0.135 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.018 true Heidke skill score: -0.066
Kuipers skill score: -0.135 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.022 true Kuipers skill score: -0.067
threat score:
0.095 0.000 0.219
threat score:
0.051 0.250 0.113
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.000 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.012 -0.084
probability of detection:
0.111 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.625 0.189
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.781
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.706 0.781
samples: 37 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 35.24 %coverage: 100.00