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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
15
7
3
25
17
8
3
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
19
24
34
77
15
7
3
25
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
0
0
0
0
54
25
11
89
61
29
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
18
23
32
73
14
7
3
24
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.179 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 0.00 8.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.41 0.68
Heidke skill score: -0.232 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.060
Kuipers skill score: -0.232 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.033 true Kuipers skill score: -0.062
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.120
threat score:
0.054 0.282 0.051
equitable threat score:
0.011 0.000 0.014
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.009 -0.116
probability of detection:
0.118 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.750 0.081
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.880
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.688 0.880
samples: 28 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 26.67 %coverage: 100.00