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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
6
5
16
5
6
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
26
32
89
5
6
5
16
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31
38
31
100
31
38
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
25
30
85
5
6
5
15
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.78 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.312
threat score:
0.000 0.274 0.104
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.812 0.135
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.708 0.688
samples: 16 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 15.24 %coverage: 100.00