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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
7
1
3
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
29
34
98
1
3
3
7
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
43
43
100
14
43
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
28
32
93
1
3
3
7
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.06 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.287 0.073
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.012 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.906 0.081
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.704 0.571
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00