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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
1
6
0
0
0
0
5
3
23
31
10
3
24
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
1
6
24
25
19
68
5
3
23
31
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
3
16
0
0
0
0
14
8
62
84
27
8
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
1
6
23
24
18
65
5
3
22
30
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.757 hitrate: 0.505
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.00 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.43 0.72
Heidke skill score: 0.635 Heidke skill score: 0.257
true Heidke skill score: 0.411 true Heidke skill score: 0.280
Kuipers skill score: 0.635 Kuipers skill score: 0.257
true Kuipers skill score: 0.339 true Kuipers skill score: 0.294
threat score:
0.455 0.000 0.719
threat score:
0.143 0.352 0.451
equitable threat score:
0.360 0.000 0.243
equitable threat score:
0.092 0.130 0.269
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.958
probability of detection:
0.147 0.893 0.535
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.000 0.258
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.632 0.258
samples: 37 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 35.24 %coverage: 100.00