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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
1
11
0
0
0
0
9
6
18
33
14
11
19
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
1
11
20
17
24
61
9
6
18
33
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
2
25
0
0
0
0
20
14
41
75
32
25
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
1
10
19
16
23
58
9
6
17
31
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.523 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.79 0.00 1.74
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.18 0.77
Heidke skill score: 0.284 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.284 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.184 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.529
threat score:
0.125 0.236 0.310
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.039 0.013 0.101
probability of detection:
0.357 0.000 0.947
probability of detection:
0.147 0.607 0.419
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.721 0.455
samples: 44 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 41.90 %coverage: 100.00