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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
4
14
0
0
0
0
4
5
12
21
7
12
16
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
4
14
27
16
27
70
4
5
12
21
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
20
11
40
0
0
0
0
11
14
34
60
20
34
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
4
13
26
15
26
67
4
5
11
20
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.31
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 2.50 0.49
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.115 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.117 true Kuipers skill score: -0.012
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.480
threat score:
0.067 0.195 0.231
equitable threat score:
0.013 0.000 0.156
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.042 0.078
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.088 0.571 0.279
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.786 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.786 0.771 0.429
samples: 35 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00