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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
1
12
0
0
0
0
3
3
9
15
8
9
10
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
1
12
26
19
33
78
3
3
9
15
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
22
4
44
0
0
0
0
11
11
33
56
30
33
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
1
11
25
18
31
74
3
3
9
14
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.519 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 2.79 0.35
Heidke skill score: 0.278 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.029
Kuipers skill score: 0.278 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.273 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.562
threat score:
0.122 0.218 0.184
equitable threat score:
0.126 0.000 0.330
equitable threat score:
0.030 -0.027 0.067
probability of detection:
0.625 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.147 0.679 0.209
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.756 0.400
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00