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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
0
11
0
0
0
0
2
3
8
13
8
8
8
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
0
11
26
20
35
81
2
3
8
13
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
21
0
46
0
0
0
0
8
13
33
54
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
0
10
25
19
33
77
2
3
8
12
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.38 0.00 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.89 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.375 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.375 true Kuipers skill score: 0.051
threat score:
0.462 0.000 0.615
threat score:
0.154 0.225 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.423
equitable threat score:
0.069 -0.024 0.063
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.176 0.714 0.186
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.000 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.753 0.385
samples: 24 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 22.86 %coverage: 100.00