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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
2
11
0
0
0
0
1
3
8
12
4
9
10
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
2
11
30
19
33
82
1
3
8
12
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
26
9
48
0
0
0
0
4
13
35
52
17
39
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
2
10
29
18
31
78
1
3
8
11
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.478 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.75 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.93 0.28
Heidke skill score: 0.217 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.244 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.217 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.268 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.071 0.209 0.170
equitable threat score:
0.108 0.000 0.317
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.041 0.073
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.088 0.679 0.186
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.768 0.333
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00