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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
7
15
0
0
0
0
2
3
34
39
6
7
41
54

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
7
15
12
14
25
51
2
3
34
39
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
13
28
0
0
0
0
4
6
63
72
11
13
76
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
7
14
11
13
24
49
2
3
32
37
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.704 hitrate: 0.495
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 0.95
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 2.43 0.59
Heidke skill score: 0.556 Heidke skill score: 0.243
true Heidke skill score: 0.296 true Heidke skill score: 0.217
Kuipers skill score: 0.556 Kuipers skill score: 0.243
true Kuipers skill score: 0.316 true Kuipers skill score: 0.262
threat score:
0.235 0.000 0.739
threat score:
0.138 0.241 0.479
equitable threat score:
0.152 0.000 0.268
equitable threat score:
0.054 0.079 0.204
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.829
probability of detection:
0.222 0.667 0.515
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.000 0.128
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.725 0.128
samples: 54 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 51.43 %coverage: 100.00