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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
0
0
1
2
32
35
4
3
34
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
14
18
32
64
1
2
32
35
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
5
15
0
0
0
0
2
5
78
85
10
7
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
13
17
30
61
1
2
30
33
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.854 hitrate: 0.505
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.03
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.05 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.780 Heidke skill score: 0.257
true Heidke skill score: 0.473 true Heidke skill score: 0.248
Kuipers skill score: 0.780 Kuipers skill score: 0.257
true Kuipers skill score: 0.442 true Kuipers skill score: 0.305
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.865
threat score:
0.143 0.269 0.464
equitable threat score:
0.376 0.000 0.373
equitable threat score:
0.099 0.096 0.213
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.941
probability of detection:
0.167 0.857 0.485
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.086
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.719 0.086
samples: 41 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 39.05 %coverage: 100.00