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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
8
6
20
0
0
0
0
1
3
30
34
7
11
36
54

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
8
6
20
11
10
30
51
1
3
30
34
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
15
11
37
0
0
0
0
2
6
56
63
13
20
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
8
6
19
10
10
29
49
1
3
29
32
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.86 0.00 0.94
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 2.43 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.374 true Heidke skill score: 0.157
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.400 true Kuipers skill score: 0.196
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.188 0.161 0.429
equitable threat score:
0.185 0.000 0.423
equitable threat score:
0.090 -0.004 0.177
probability of detection:
0.857 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.333 0.476 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.000 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.804 0.118
samples: 54 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 51.43 %coverage: 100.00