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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
0
0
1
2
16
19
4
3
18
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
14
18
48
80
1
2
16
19
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
8
24
0
0
0
0
4
8
64
76
16
12
72
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
13
17
46
76
1
2
15
18
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.760 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.81 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.640 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.421 true Heidke skill score: 0.106
Kuipers skill score: 0.640 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.395 true Kuipers skill score: 0.143
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.762
threat score:
0.143 0.217 0.232
equitable threat score:
0.338 0.000 0.317
equitable threat score:
0.099 0.030 0.071
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.889
probability of detection:
0.167 0.857 0.242
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.775 0.158
samples: 25 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00