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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
4
9
0
0
0
0
1
3
17
21
5
4
21
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
4
9
13
17
45
75
1
3
17
21
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
3
13
30
0
0
0
0
3
10
57
70
17
13
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
4
9
12
16
43
71
1
3
16
20
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.700 hitrate: 0.362
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.57 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.550 Heidke skill score: 0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.348 true Heidke skill score: 0.110
Kuipers skill score: 0.550 Kuipers skill score: 0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.344 true Kuipers skill score: 0.147
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.680
threat score:
0.174 0.215 0.243
equitable threat score:
0.294 0.000 0.223
equitable threat score:
0.115 0.031 0.067
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.810
probability of detection:
0.222 0.810 0.258
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.000 0.190
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.773 0.190
samples: 30 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00