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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
1
5
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
9
3
2
9
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
1
5
15
19
57
91
0
1
8
9
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
7
7
36
0
0
0
0
0
7
57
64
21
14
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
1
5
14
18
54
87
0
1
8
9
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.786 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 4.33 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.679 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.580 true Heidke skill score: 0.066
Kuipers skill score: 0.679 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.569 true Kuipers skill score: 0.094
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.150 0.204 0.119
equitable threat score:
0.491 0.000 0.525
equitable threat score:
0.112 0.011 0.038
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.889
probability of detection:
0.167 0.905 0.121
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.791 0.111
samples: 14 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 13.33 %coverage: 100.00