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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
7
0
0
0
0
0
1
9
10
3
3
11
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
7
15
18
55
88
0
1
9
10
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
12
12
41
0
0
0
0
0
6
53
59
18
18
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
7
14
17
52
84
0
1
9
10
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.706 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 0.00 0.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.39 4.19 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.559 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.462 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.559 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.487 true Kuipers skill score: 0.087
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.136 0.198 0.134
equitable threat score:
0.306 0.000 0.457
equitable threat score:
0.087 0.005 0.045
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.818
probability of detection:
0.167 0.857 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.000 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.795 0.100
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00