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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
13
22
0
0
0
0
4
6
36
46
7
12
49
68

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
13
22
1
6
31
38
4
6
36
46
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
19
32
0
0
0
0
6
9
53
68
10
18
72
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
12
21
1
6
29
36
4
6
34
43
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.574 hitrate: 0.425
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.14 0.00 0.94
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.75 2.11 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.360 Heidke skill score: 0.137
true Heidke skill score: 0.110 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.360 Kuipers skill score: 0.137
true Kuipers skill score: 0.120 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.115 0.000 0.610
threat score:
0.111 0.120 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.031 0.000 0.110
equitable threat score:
0.053 -0.010 0.023
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.735
probability of detection:
0.375 0.333 0.450
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.864 0.000 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.864 0.842 0.217
samples: 68 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 64.15 %coverage: 100.00