CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
14
27
0
0
0
0
1
4
24
29
5
13
38
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
14
27
3
5
42
50
1
4
24
29
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
16
25
48
0
0
0
0
2
7
43
52
9
23
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
13
25
3
5
40
47
1
4
23
27
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.311
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.40 0.00 0.76
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.38 2.78 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.033
true Heidke skill score: 0.174 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.033
true Kuipers skill score: 0.221 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.558
threat score:
0.129 0.079 0.282
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.000 0.185
equitable threat score:
0.068 -0.064 0.033
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.632
probability of detection:
0.500 0.278 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.852 0.000 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.852 0.900 0.172
samples: 56 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 52.83 %coverage: 100.00