CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
0
0
0
0
1
3
9
13
2
5
10
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
6
13
70
89
1
3
9
13
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
12
6
24
0
0
0
0
6
18
53
76
12
29
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
6
12
66
84
1
3
8
12
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.588 hitrate: 0.217
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 4.94 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.382 Heidke skill score: -0.175
true Heidke skill score: 0.212 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.382 Kuipers skill score: -0.175
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.053
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.643
threat score:
0.091 0.138 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.117 0.000 0.213
equitable threat score:
0.065 -0.027 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.125 0.722 0.112
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.854 0.308
samples: 17 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.04 %coverage: 100.00