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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
2
6
0
0
0
0
2
3
7
12
3
6
9
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
2
6
5
12
71
88
2
3
7
12
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
17
11
33
0
0
0
0
11
17
39
67
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
2
6
5
11
67
83
2
3
7
11
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.189
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 4.89 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.217
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.217
true Kuipers skill score: 0.091 true Kuipers skill score: -0.106
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.077 0.128 0.082
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.044 -0.037 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.125 0.667 0.087
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.864 0.417
samples: 18 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.98 %coverage: 100.00