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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
3
7
0
0
0
0
2
3
6
11
3
6
9
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
3
7
5
12
71
88
2
3
6
11
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
17
17
39
0
0
0
0
11
17
33
61
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
3
7
5
11
67
83
2
3
6
10
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.179
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 0.00 1.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 4.89 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.231
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.231
true Kuipers skill score: 0.030 true Kuipers skill score: -0.114
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.071 0.128 0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.000 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.037 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.125 0.667 0.075
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.864 0.455
samples: 18 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.98 %coverage: 100.00