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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
26
38
0
0
0
0
3
11
24
38
7
19
50
76

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
26
38
3
8
18
29
3
11
24
38
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
34
50
0
0
0
0
4
14
32
50
9
25
66
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
25
36
3
8
17
28
3
10
23
36
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.43 0.00 0.76
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.80 1.07 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.011 true Heidke skill score: 0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.013 true Kuipers skill score: 0.006
threat score:
0.098 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.091 0.167 0.293
equitable threat score:
0.013 0.000 -0.026
equitable threat score:
0.009 0.013 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 0.480
probability of detection:
0.400 0.296 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.895 0.000 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.895 0.724 0.368
samples: 76 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 72.38 %coverage: 100.00