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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
19
26
0
0
0
0
3
10
26
39
7
13
45
65

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
19
26
3
14
23
40
3
10
26
39
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
29
40
0
0
0
0
5
15
40
60
11
20
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
18
25
3
13
22
38
3
10
25
37
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.419
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.71 0.00 0.87
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 1.48 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: 0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.006 true Heidke skill score: 0.089
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: 0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.007 true Kuipers skill score: 0.113
threat score:
0.138 0.000 0.448
threat score:
0.125 0.264 0.321
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.000 -0.032
equitable threat score:
0.052 0.087 0.013
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 0.578
probability of detection:
0.400 0.519 0.382
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.846 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.846 0.650 0.333
samples: 65 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 61.90 %coverage: 100.00