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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
15
18
0
0
0
0
1
2
17
20
1
5
32
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
15
18
9
22
36
67
1
2
17
20
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
39
47
0
0
0
0
3
5
45
53
3
13
84
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
14
17
9
21
34
64
1
2
16
19
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.447 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
18.00 0.00 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 2.48 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.171 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: -0.015 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.171 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: -0.030 true Kuipers skill score: 0.134
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.486
threat score:
0.000 0.306 0.239
equitable threat score:
-0.026 0.000 0.009
equitable threat score:
-0.065 0.087 0.070
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.531
probability of detection:
0.000 0.815 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.672 0.150
samples: 38 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 36.19 %coverage: 100.00