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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
21
25
0
0
0
0
0
5
24
29
0
9
45
54

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
21
25
10
18
23
51
0
5
24
29
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
39
46
0
0
0
0
0
9
44
54
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
20
24
10
17
22
49
0
5
23
28
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 1.89 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.006 true Heidke skill score: 0.109
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.011 true Kuipers skill score: 0.146
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.480
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.329
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.073 0.104 0.096
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.533
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.647 0.172
samples: 54 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 51.43 %coverage: 100.00