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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
19
21
0
0
0
0
0
6
15
21
0
8
34
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
19
21
10
19
34
63
0
6
15
21
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
45
50
0
0
0
0
0
14
36
50
0
19
81
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
18
20
10
18
32
60
0
6
14
20
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.357 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.10 2.33 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.036 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.080 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.036 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.154 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.268 0.203
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.069 0.051 0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.441
probability of detection:
0.000 0.704 0.221
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.698 0.286
samples: 42 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00