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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
3
8
0
5
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
22
65
97
0
5
3
8
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
38
100
0
63
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
21
62
92
0
5
3
8
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.59 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.068
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.097
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.041
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.038 -0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.815 0.044
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.773 0.625
samples: 8 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 7.62 %coverage: 100.00