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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
9
15
27
0
0
0
0
3
2
13
18
6
11
28
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
9
15
27
12
23
25
60
3
2
13
18
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
20
33
60
0
0
0
0
7
4
29
40
13
24
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
9
14
26
11
22
24
57
3
2
12
17
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.356 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 0.00 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.76 0.34
Heidke skill score: 0.033 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.040 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: 0.033 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.050 true Kuipers skill score: 0.091
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.394
threat score:
0.071 0.324 0.224
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.000 0.083
equitable threat score:
-0.044 0.069 0.080
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.464
probability of detection:
0.167 0.676 0.245
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.000 0.278
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.617 0.278
samples: 45 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00