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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
10
19
30
0
0
0
0
4
1
12
17
5
11
31
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
10
19
30
13
23
22
58
4
1
12
17
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
21
40
64
0
0
0
0
9
2
26
36
11
23
66
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
10
18
29
12
22
21
55
4
1
11
16
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.277 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.00 0.00 0.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 1.71 0.32
Heidke skill score: -0.085 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.085 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.060 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.029 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.021 0.333 0.207
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.000 0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.099 0.084 0.069
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.387
probability of detection:
0.056 0.676 0.226
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.967 0.000 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.967 0.603 0.294
samples: 47 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 44.76 %coverage: 100.00