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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
21
34
0
0
0
0
5
4
13
22
10
12
34
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
21
34
8
22
19
49
5
4
13
22
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
14
38
61
0
0
0
0
9
7
23
39
18
21
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
20
32
8
21
18
47
5
4
12
21
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.321 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.40 0.00 0.65
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.89 1.44 0.42
Heidke skill score: -0.018 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.039 true Heidke skill score: 0.100
Kuipers skill score: -0.018 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.046 true Kuipers skill score: 0.112
threat score:
0.128 0.000 0.302
threat score:
0.106 0.361 0.210
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.000 -0.012
equitable threat score:
-0.020 0.136 0.037
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.382
probability of detection:
0.278 0.647 0.245
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.853 0.000 0.409
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.853 0.551 0.409
samples: 56 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 53.33 %coverage: 100.00