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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
25
39
0
0
0
0
5
5
13
23
10
14
38
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
25
39
8
20
15
43
5
5
13
23
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
15
40
63
0
0
0
0
8
8
21
37
16
23
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
24
37
8
19
14
41
5
5
12
22
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.290 hitrate: 0.362
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.90 0.00 0.61
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.17 1.26 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.065 Heidke skill score: 0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.057 true Heidke skill score: 0.079
Kuipers skill score: -0.065 Kuipers skill score: 0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.070 true Kuipers skill score: 0.090
threat score:
0.114 0.000 0.271
threat score:
0.096 0.351 0.206
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.000 -0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.037 0.141 0.027
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.342
probability of detection:
0.278 0.588 0.245
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.872 0.000 0.435
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.872 0.535 0.435
samples: 62 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 59.05 %coverage: 100.00