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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
16
34
50
100
0
0
0
0
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
0
60
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
0
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
3
5
15
32
48
95
0
0
0
0
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.94 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.095 0.340 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.024 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.111 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.660 0.000
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00