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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
13
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
13
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
13
19
16
30
40
86
0
0
0
0
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
21
68
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
21
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
12
18
15
29
38
82
0
0
0
0
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.105 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.50 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.06 2.53 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.342 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.342 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.105 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.057 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.040 0.035 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.111 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.895 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.895 0.651 0.000
samples: 19 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 18.10 %coverage: 100.00