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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
32
51
101
0
2
2
4
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
30
49
96
0
2
2
4
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.97 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.311 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.038
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.500
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00