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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
4
12
8
0
4
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
21
48
93
8
0
4
12
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
0
33
100
67
0
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
20
46
89
8
0
4
11
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.43 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.226 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.032 -0.036
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.774 0.667
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00