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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
5
8
3
0
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
21
47
97
3
0
5
8
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
0
63
100
38
0
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
20
45
92
3
0
5
8
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.62 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.021 0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.096
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.784 0.375
samples: 8 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 7.62 %coverage: 100.00